Suggested Markets: April 12, 2019
Augur Watch will be starting a brand new "Market Watch" each week to look out for interesting markets. These markets may be placed because of their Open Interest, current odds, or just plain for fun. Don't take them too seriously, and if they are found to have problems, feel free to reach out and we'll post a correction.
1. What will the Ethereum Price at the End of April be?
This particular market was chosen because there are only 3 options for the price of 1 ETH in USD: below $50, $50-$500, and above $500. This week ETH, as well as most other crypto markets, rallied for more than 10% gains in a single day, to break $180 multiple times. While the white hot market is cooling off and hovering around $160, there isn't any reason it could drop to below $50. The asks are currently trading at 0.45 and could easily be considered free ETH. The range here is just too wide, and I could personally see this trading at 0.9.
Heads up though, the resolution time falls before the real life resolution time, so there's a chance this could be marked as INVALID. Never trade what you aren't willing to lose!
2. Who will win the Ukrainian Presidential Election?
While political elections can occasionally drag on for much longer than their ballot endings, this particular market is highlighted because of it's open interest and very uncertain outcome. Multiple non-Augur polls are showing Zelensky will win the election after having a high ballot count in the first round, but the second round will consist of only Zelensky and Poroskenko. The first round saw a lot of votes for other candidates, so who will these candidates choose when there are only two options? Both candidates only captured about 45% of the voters in the first round, so this market could be a good option if you have extra funds to gamble. The polls favor Zelensky, but as we Yanks in the U.S. know, polls can be extremely incorrect. Good luck!
3. Will Liverpool Win the English Premier League?
Liverpool are certainly favorites in the EPL giving that they have seen strong form and have been thoroughly dominate in Champions League. Even with this form, Manchester City are only 2 points behind. With both teams having only 5 games left, the EPL is still up for grabs and a single slip by Liverpool could mean Manchester City lifts the trophy again after winning last year. This is another toss up market and is currently trading around 0.4.
4. Will Avengers Endgame Gross over $275M in it's opening weekend?
Superhero movies are white hot in the U.S., but this movie is fairing against a strong contender in Shazam!, which received a 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating. While it's extremely likely this blockbuster film will exceed the $275M mark domestically, it's not alien if it barely misses the mark. While there's not a ton of asks and bids at the time, this could be a nice way to gain since blockbuster grosses have massively increased over time. $250M could be seen as a failure for a movie with this budget. I would certainly buy for 0.6 or less.
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